Key Points
If you’ve spent any time reading about retirement planning, you’ve probably come across the 4% rule. It’s one of the best-known guidelines for preserving retirement savings.
The 4% rule has you withdrawing 4% of your IRA or 401(k) balance your first year of retirement. From there, you adjust subsequent withdrawals in line with inflation.
So if your retirement plan balance is $2 million, you’d withdraw $80,000 your first year. If you need a 2% increase to match inflation your second year of retirement, you’d add $1,600 to your initial withdrawal, bringing your total withdrawal for the year to $81,600.
The nice thing about the 4% rule is that it’s been tested across a range of market scenarios and shown that it’s effective in helping portfolios last at least 30 years. But in recent years, the 4% rule has faced its share of criticism.
Some experts argue the rule is too risky in today’s market environment. Others say it’s too conservative and could cause retirees to underspend.
Despite the debate, the 4% rule remains a useful starting point for many retirees. The key is understanding how to use it.
Understand what the rule is based on
The 4% rule relies on certain assumptions that are important to understand. It assumes a fairly “average” retirement age and a fairly equal mix of stocks and bonds. What this means, though, is that if your portfolio mix is notably different or you’re retiring early or late, the rule may not work for you.
If you’re retiring at 55, you may need your portfolio to last more than 30 years, especially if you have a family history of longevity. On the flip side, if you’re retiring at 76, you may not need 30 years of withdrawals, which could allow for a higher withdrawal rate than 4%.
Similarly, if your portfolio is 70% stocks, you may be able to raise your withdrawal rate, because your assets might grow at a fast enough pace to allow for that. And if you’re very risk-averse and have 80% of your portfolio in bonds, a 4% withdrawal rate may be too aggressive over a 30-year period of time.
Use the rule as a guide, not a rigid formula
Some experts are quick to blast the 4% rule as being too restrictive. But it’s important to realize that there’s plenty of flexibility with the rule.
Going back to our example, you may decide to take an $80,000 withdrawal your first year of retirement from a $2 million IRA or 401(k) if the market is doing fine. If the market crashes the following year and your portfolio value drops to $1.5 million, an $80,000 withdrawal represents 5.3% of your balance. That could be considered risky.
But here’s the thing. You don’t have to take the full $80,000 your second year of retirement if there’s a major market downturn. That’s the thing many people don’t realize.
The purpose of the 4% rule isn’t to force you to keep withdrawing at the same rate regardless of what the market is doing. Rather, it’s to serve as a framework for managing your money over time. In a situation like the one above, you’d be well served reducing your spending and withdrawals to ride out that crash.
Similarly, you may have a year in retirement when you withdraw 5% of your balance instead of 4% to pursue some travel opportunities while your health is strong. The 4% rule doesn’t expressly tell you to do that. But it also doesn’t tell you not to.
It’s a matter of adjusting the rule to your needs and circumstances
The 4% rule may not be perfect. But it remains a valuable planning tool for retirement because it gives you a reasonable starting point for estimating how much income your savings may be able to provide.
Rather than abandon the rule or assume it’s outdated, use it flexibly. By adjusting withdrawals as needed, you can improve your chances of making your retirement savings last for decades.
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